GENEVA – A stark new report from the United Nations’ weather and climate agency warns of a significant likelihood that global average temperatures will surpass a critical benchmark within the next five years. On May 28, 2025, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published its annual climate assessment, projecting a 70 percent chance that the average global warming between 2025 and 2029 will exceed the internationally recognized limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average).
The report underscores that the planet is anticipated to remain at historically high warming levels, following the unprecedented heat experienced in 2023 and 2024, which currently stand as the warmest years on record. The WMO’s findings offer little hope for a near-term reversal of current climate trends.
The WMO’s Urgent Warning
Providing insight into the report’s sobering conclusions, Ko Barrett, the WMO’s deputy secretary-general, stated that the assessment “provides no sign of respite over the coming years.” This forecast signals the continuation and potential intensification of climate impacts globally. Barrett warned of growing negative impacts on economies, daily lives, ecosystems, and the planet as a whole if current warming trajectories persist.
The report from the WMO, a leading authority on climate science under the United Nations, serves as a critical update on the state of the global climate system. It utilizes sophisticated modeling and data analysis to provide a probabilistic forecast for the near-term climate outlook, highlighting the increased proximity to key warming thresholds.
The 1.5°C Threshold and Paris Agreement
The 1.5 degrees Celsius figure is central to international climate mitigation efforts. It represents the more ambitious target set out in the 2015 Paris climate accords, which aimed to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, while ideally pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Scientists widely agree that limiting warming to 1.5°C would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change compared to a 2°C increase.
However, the WMO report highlights the increasing difficulty of adhering to the 1.5°C target. Rising CO2 emissions continue to drive up global temperatures, pushing the world closer to – and potentially past – this critical benchmark. The EU’s climate monitor, Copernicus, currently estimates global warming at approximately 1.39 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, illustrating just how close the planet already is to the 1.5°C mark, even before factoring in the WMO’s five-year forecast.
The WMO’s projection of a 70 percent chance of exceeding 1.5°C on average over the 2025-2029 period does not necessarily mean the world will permanently breach the limit as a multi-decadal average during this time. However, it indicates a significantly increased probability of temporary breaches within individual years of the forecast period, and signals the growing risk of sustained exceedance in the very near future, aligning with the trajectory predicted by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.
Regional Projections and Impacts
The report also offers specific regional climate predictions for the coming five years, painting a varied picture of anticipated impacts across the globe.
The Arctic region is specifically forecast to continue warming at a rate that outpaces the global average. This accelerated warming has profound implications, particularly for ice dynamics. Significant sea ice reductions are expected in specific Arctic-adjacent seas, including the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk Seas, within the period from March 2025 to March 2029.
Regarding precipitation patterns, the WMO report forecasts shifts in rainfall across several key regions. South Asia is predicted to be wetter than average over the next five years. Similar increases in precipitation are forecast for the Sahel region of Africa, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia. In contrast, the Amazon basin in South America is predicted to experience drier conditions over the same 2025-2029 period.
These regional shifts in temperature and precipitation have direct implications for agriculture, water resources, ecosystems, and human populations, reinforcing the WMO’s warning of growing negative impacts on economies, daily lives, and ecosystems.
Implications of the Forecast
The WMO’s forecast serves as a stark reminder of the urgency required in addressing climate change. A 70 percent chance of exceeding the 1.5°C average over a five-year period is a high probability, indicating that even temporary breaches of this threshold are becoming increasingly likely and frequent. This short-term forecast reflects the cumulative effect of past and ongoing CO2 emissions and the inertia of the climate system.
The report’s finding that there is “no sign of respite over the coming years” suggests that the record-breaking temperatures of 2023 and 2024 were not anomalies but potentially indicative of the new normal for the coming half-decade, moving the world closer to a sustained state above 1.5°C.
Conclusion
The World Meteorological Organization’s latest climate report delivers a powerful message: the world is on the precipice of potentially exceeding a critical global warming threshold within the next five years. With a 70 percent probability that average temperatures from 2025 to 2029 will surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the findings underscore the accelerating pace of climate change and the growing risks associated with continued greenhouse gas emissions. The report’s detailed regional forecasts, from accelerating Arctic warming to changing precipitation patterns, paint a picture of a planet already experiencing significant shifts, signaling the urgent need for reinforced global action.
