United States business activity showed significant improvement in May, according to the latest survey data, signaling a notable acceleration in economic momentum after a period of slower growth. However, this positive development was accompanied by clear indications of sharply accelerating inflation, raising questions about the future trajectory of consumer prices.
The closely watched S&P Global’s flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks activity across both the manufacturing and services sectors, rose to 52.1 in May. This marks an increase from 50.6 recorded in April, with any reading above 50 indicating expansion in private sector output. The upward movement into firmer growth territory suggests resilience in the face of ongoing economic complexities.
Broad-Based Expansion Across Sectors
The data revealed that both key sectors of the U.S. economy contributed positively to the overall expansion during May. The flash manufacturing PMI increased to 52.3, up from 50.2 in April, indicating a healthy pick-up in factory output. Simultaneously, the flash services PMI also saw a rise, climbing to 52.3 from 50.8 in the preceding month, pointing to stronger activity in the dominant service sector.
This synchronized growth across manufacturing and services underscores a broadening of the economic recovery, moving beyond single-sector strength and suggesting underlying demand across various parts of the economy.
Inflationary Pressures Intensify
While the expansion in activity is a welcome sign, the survey findings painted a stark picture regarding inflation. The data indicated a sharp acceleration in input costs faced by businesses. The measure of prices paid for inputs jumped significantly to 63.4 in May. This represents a considerable increase from 58.5 in April and marks the highest reading for this gauge since November 2022.
The report highlighted that businesses were not absorbing these higher costs but were actively passing them on to consumers. The gauge of prices charged by businesses for their goods and services also saw a substantial increase, rising to 59.3. This figure is up from 54.0 in April and stands as the highest reading for this index since August 2022. The combination of surging input costs and businesses’ ability to raise their selling prices strongly suggests that consumer price inflation is likely poised to accelerate in the near term.
Trends in New Orders and Employment
Further insights into demand conditions were provided by the new orders data. New orders received by businesses rose to 52.4 in May, an improvement from 51.7 in April. The survey noted that this uptick was primarily driven by the manufacturing sector, suggesting renewed strength in goods demand.
However, the employment situation presented a more cautious outlook. The employment gauge dropped to 49.5 in May from 50.2 in April. A reading below 50 indicates a contraction in employment. This slight decline in hiring reflected underlying concerns among businesses regarding future demand prospects, alongside persistent challenges such as rising costs and ongoing labor shortages that continue to impact hiring decisions.
Contextual Factors and Cost Drivers
The report provided context for the improved business activity, noting that it occurred during a period characterized by a break in the U.S.-China trade war. Despite this, the survey specifically cited tariffs previously imposed by President Trump as a factor that has continued to contribute to higher prices for both businesses and consumers. This detail underscores the lasting impact of trade policy on domestic pricing dynamics.
Overall, the May flash PMI data from S&P Global presents a mixed but revealing picture of the U.S. economy. It shows genuine momentum in business activity, with output expanding at the fastest pace in a year, driven by both manufacturing and services. Yet, it simultaneously highlights a significant resurgence of inflationary pressures, as rising input costs translate directly into higher prices charged to end customers. This dual narrative of strengthening growth alongside accelerating inflation sets a complex backdrop for policymakers and consumers alike.
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